Archive for the ‘Sports’ Category

2007 MLB Predictions

Monday, March 26th, 2007
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NL Predictions
NL Predictions

Easiest Picks: KCR, NYY, SEA, WAS
Hardest Picks: DET, TEX

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NL Central Thoughts: A note to all that I enter this operation with a PRO-

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Cubs bias. Seriously. I always overrate the North Siders. That said, the pitching is improved, but not on the level of three other Central Division clubs, and the offense is incomplete. They’re good, but they can’t beat a healthy Cards club. And you have to assume health here unless there are issues already presenting themselves.

Houston’s good, but not playoff good. Milwaukee doesn’t need a Cy Young year from Sheets, they need a HOF year from Sheets, and Jeff Suppan minus defense equals losses.

AL Central Thoughts: Oh, like you have a clue either.

NL West Thoughts: Winner gets to lose in four in the NLDS!

AL West Thoughts:

SAMMY’S REVENGE! Seriously, the Angels are overrated and Oakland is good, but there’s something about Texas I like. I’ve never picked them to make the playoffs. That changes here.

NL, AL East Thoughts: Be Kind Rewind release Oh, go ask ESPN.

Politically Correct

Wednesday, March 21st, 2007

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Seen on eastbound Illinois 13 in Carbondale one day before the Salukis/Jayhawks Sweet Sixteen contest:

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Sucks?

Holy Cross, Batman, the Crusaders are GOING DOWN

Sunday, March 11th, 2007
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At about 11:15 CDT on Thursday, a jibcam will swing around the left side of the studio at CBS Sports, showing a block of four flat panel televisions arranged in two columns and two rows. Each will have a locator shot from the corner of an arena with full-screen chyron announcing the two teams about to play.

Greg Gumbel will say something to the extent of “Let’s take you to your game…”

And my head will explode.

As much as baseball is my favorite sport, and as little attention as I pay to college basketball before this last week, there is nothing in sports that can match the drama of the NCAA Tournament, specifically the first two days. Especially when you’re in a pool.

And especially when you work around about thirty HDTVs and have access to every game in HD from your antenna and DirecTV HD DVR.

Ever After divx For the third year in a row I’m running my pool at work, and my spreadsheet each season has been revised to perfection. This year it’s gotten ridiculous: all I had to do was put in the bracket on one worksheet and I have a page for each participant where all I do is check who they pick to win each game. Then, after each game, I type in the final score and it tabulates the results for me. Epic.

Here’s the 2007 spreadsheet with the teams included. I’ll be updating it late Monday night (read: after “24″) with game times when released (and at that point this sentence will disappear; enjoy it while you can.) Read the instructions on the first worksheet (titled, appropriately enough, “Instructions”) and enjoy.

On The Baseball Winter Meetings

Thursday, December 7th, 2006

ON MR. SORIANO, MR. A. RAMIREZ AND MR. LILLY
I’ve always had a soft spot for the Cubs. I love Chicago, I love Wrigley Field, I love baseball, I love WGN Radio and like the Tribune Company, so it’s a good fit.

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I’m also a diehard Cardinals fan, which makes this fit as appropriate as an orthodox Muslim spinning a dreidel.

That said, the Cubs seem to get the bounce from my hometown bias more than the team I really root for. It’s easy for me to pick the Cards to win the NL Central ever year; save 2003, they’ve done this each of the past seven years. To place Chicago up there with them is something harder to justify.

It’s just every year they look so good.

2007 is not much of an exception, even if pitching is as rare for GM Jim Hendry as a healthy cardiovascular system. Thoughts on the Cubs’ moves so far:

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• Locking up Aramis Ramirez: smart, but only if Sweet Lou does his job. A-Ram came over while Sosa was still in town, and the question is how much of his bad attitude rubbed off on the youngster from Pittsburgh. Dusty Baker’s biggest misstep on the North Side was not managing his team (odd, for someone paid to be a manager) and the Cubs seemed to be more of a collection of Starting Lineup figurines than a baseball team. Pinella’s a disciplinarian, and his first task will be jacking up A-Ram’s work ethic to the level of Scott Rolen and David Wright.

• Backing the Brinks truck up to Alfonso Soriano: what happened to the outfield hurting your chances at big money in free agency? Asshole. That said, he was the premiere player on the free agent market, and it gives the team the Offensive Threat. Having someone like that to take the pressure off of Ramirez – and most importantly Derrek Lee – makes those two latter hitters better, granted that, again, Pinella doesn’t let his third baseman glide on his new fat contract.

The big question here is the money the Cubs have tied up in their new center fielder, so the verdict’s going to be out on this one for a while. Either the Cubs have themselves a franchise player who’ll have his number flying atop Wrigley Field, or the payroll is shot New York Knicks-style for the next half-decade.

• Ted Lilly, forty-million dollar man: umm, no. This one admittedly could go either way, since pitching is one of those crazy things you can rarely ever predict. Lilly’s very unproven, though, and this deal is another crazy bid for whatever mediocre talent is out there in a depleted market. Cards’ GM Walt Jocketty does this all the time, except he pays chump change and gets gold. Everyone else bets the farm and ends up with manure. Kip Wells is hardly anything to crow about, but one year, $4 million is worth a try and won’t cost in the long run if it fails. $10 million a year for four years is 50-50 for a proven winner, and the odds aren’t in your favor for a guy with a .500 lifetime record and ERA above 4.50. Like Ted Lilly, for example. The point: potential upside, but with a contract that big you’re risking too much.

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Paycheck

And while we’re involving the Blue Jays, there’s no way that this one turns out as bad for Chicago as the Burnett signing will for Toronto, who are one year into a five year, $55 million General Hospital episode directed by Frank Thomas, who won the Ontario Lottery. Idiots.

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• Central Division Standings: STL, CHI, HOU, CIN, MIL, PIT. The Cubs pitching is still a question, and their offense has to gel before it can be accepted. Right now it’s all potential. Houston has some pop (but no one to get on in front of it,) and Cincy needs starters, stat. Milwaukee’s going backwards. Pittsburgh has pretty uniforms.

ON J.D. DREW FOR FIVE YEARS, $70 MILLION TO BOSTON
Ha! Theo, you’re a dumbass.

ON GREG MADDUX MAKING $10 MILLION IN SAN DIEGO THIS YEAR
On the surface this nets the Padres about ten or twelve more wins. That’s forgetting the influence that Maddux can have on pitchers, though. Chalk about ten more wins up between Chris Young and Jake Peavy as well. Well, maybe that’s too many more wins. Anyway, Padres win the west. Again. (And lose in the first round. Again.)

ON THE RUMOR THAT THE CARDINALS WANTED BARRY BONDS
What was ESPN high on? I understand the report – that Tony La Russa (pictured here as a giant bunny) wanted to talk to his agent’s “guy,” but how you go from that to spending at least $15 million you don’t have on a busted up .240-hitting clubhouse cancer when right now either Brad Thompson or Chris Narveson is your fifth starter? Think, people, think. Jocketty’s firm denial pleased me greatly.

The Attic Just sign Weaver already, whydon’tcha.

The Yankees Lose Again

Sunday, October 29th, 2006

Back in June I created a spreadsheet (original entry

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Blood and Bone ipod | updated 2006 spreadsheet) to calculate which MLB division, since 1995, is the best. My brief explanation:

Each division has its own page with the standings for each year, beginning in 1995, along with playoff results. Points were assigned as such: one point for winning percentage x 100 (a .506 divisional percentage in a year gets you 506 points,) 25 points for a wild card berth (every division has a winner, so division titles are meaningless here,) 50 points for a league pennant, and finally 75 points for a world title. Additionally, your playoff record is taken x 10, plus the number of wins x2, so a 5-6 record in the playoffs nets you 55.45 points (5 divided by 11 is your winning percentage of .450, that times 10 is 45 points, plus 5 wins times 2 points is 10 more points. The point is to make the postseason winning percentage valuable, and wins moreso, yet not enough to eclipse the importance of the regular season.)

Updated now with the final regular season and playoff standings, some 2006 trends:

• The AL East is still the dominant division since the 1994 realignment, but finishing last this year for the first time drops the lead in average points from 30 to about 23 over the NL East; the Orioles’ and Rays’ record coupled with a 1-3 playoff record hurt the division. It would take a big swing – like a title by the Mets along with a Phillies or Marlins wild card – but the NL East could conceivably take the top spot next year.

• The NL Central, 5th overall coming into 2006, leapfrogged the NL West into 4th riding the Cardinals’ World Series victory. However, while the trend continued (as it mathematically pretty well must) that the division with the World Champ is the overall winner, it was by far the smallest margin of victory yet. 2000’s AL East outranked the NL East by only 76 points, and the NL Central this year crushed

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that record by only besting the AL Central by a paltry 22 Beowulf & Grendel download points. Having an 83-win champion while your opponent carries a wild card and a pennant will do that to you. By the way, the average spread between number one and number two coming into 2006 was 110, the highest being 161 by the Marlin-led NL East over the AL East (one of two years, along with 2001, that the second place division didn’t play home to the World Series runner-up.)

• The total for the NL Central, 682, was also easily the lowest for the reigning division, besting the old mark (708 by the 2000 NL East.) Another mark of MLB parity: the AL East’s last place finish came with the third-highest points ever for the cellar dweller, and the smallest margin between first and last place ever. Parity, mark three: over the last six years, each of the divisions has won a world title once and only once.

• In the ten years prior to 2004, the two Central divisions had claimed just two of the twenty top two positions. In the two years that have followed, they’ve occupied four of four. Last year the AL Central saw its first world title, and 2006 gave the division its first wild card, the last division to claim one. The Cards’ tenth world championship was the first ever for the NL Central division.

• The Cardinals won the World Series.

Game Five

Friday, October 27th, 2006

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Ten

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Game Four

Thursday, October 26th, 2006

World Series 2006

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4

10

1

9

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STL

5

9

0

9

• SO. DAMN. LUCKY.

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The errant throw to first by Rodney. The slip by Granderson. The inch – INCH – between Monroe and the ball. All luck, and all the Cards’ way.

From a production standpoint, one can’t complain about the Birds’ effort. Edmonds was non-existant, but Rolen is still a stud, Eckstein is official out of his slump, and Wilson looks better than he has in a while. Still, the Tigers easily outhit Mound City, with Pudge and Sean Casey bending Sup over and spanking him like an errant child. It wasn’t pretty.

Still, the better team is the one that makes the least mistakes, and across the board – pitch selection, defense, et cetera – when the Cards held the ball they were pitch perfect. On offense, they did what they had to, but Rolen being stranded after his leadoff double was sad baseball, redeemed only by luck.

• Let’s put Suppan’s start in context – it was very good. After his domination of New York N in the last series, I think Cardinal Nation expected perfection, but against a refreshed Tigers’ offense he fared well. There was no big inning, just a hit here and there, and some timely strikeouts when needed. There may be some Redbird fans disappointed that he couldn’t match his prior efforts, but if you told anyone on October first that Sup would give up three over six in game four of the Series, they would have shit themselves with delight. His mistakes were not that – they were Tiger victories. As much as columnists commented that Detroit’s lineup helped Reyes in game one by being impatient, credit those same batters with reaching against Suppan – those weren’t gift hits, but good at-bats.

Homeward Bound II: Lost in San Francisco releaseWainwright is a pimp, and so is Tony. Bringing him in with one out in the eighth is EXACTLY the right move. La Russa may have helped pioneer the “ninth inning closer” role, but if he’s really the best in your pen, you bring him in when it matters, and although he allowed the inherited runner to score and tie the game, he shut them down the rest of the way – quite easily in the ninth, in fact – and better damn well have the closer’s role locked up for 2007.

• With the Cards up three-one, it’s time to formally initiate new baseball fan Emily into Cardinal Nation. Time to teach her about Don Denkinger.

Game Three

Tuesday, October 24th, 2006

World Series 2006

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DET

0

3

1

2

STL

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7

0

11

Gothika filmThe offense got lucky. The final might have well been two-zip, ’cause the Cards’ offense was lackluster again. The two-run double in the fourth was good, but otherwise the Cardinals were 2-13 with runners in scoring position and relied on two errors to score three runs. You can’t win a World Series relying on your opponent to be inferior; the Mets just tried that in the NLCS and now they’re stuck watching WNYW.

That said, Eckstein breaking out of his funk

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bodes well, as the kid may give a baserunner or two to Pujols to drive in. Rolen and Molina still looks sharp, and Tony yanking Encarnacion shows he understands how much Juan’s struggles are hurting the team.

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• I guess it’s a new Redbird postseason tradition to empty the opponent’s bullpen.

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Not that the offense produced much as a result, but the Tigers’ pen was shaky and unless they settle down may offer opportunities for Mound City in the next couple games. They just have to capitalize much better than they did tonight.

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Carpenter was exactly, exactly what he had to be, just like Rogers was the night before. Advantage Cardinals, as Sup can hopefully tame Bonderman and setup a 3-1 lead for Reyes in front of a rabid home crowd. It’s wishful thinking, but the series may not see Motown again.

• Fox’s Wild Chroma-Key Adventure: in the bottom of the second, the rotating billboard behind home plate was going nuts. Fox inserts their own advert here in the fashion of a weather map on the nightly news, and while most of the game it was seamless, the white background that inning contrasted sharply against the reality of Busch III; the borders flashed on and off and a black line appeared around Jim Edmonds. Tsk tsk, Fox.

• After his obnoxious Budweiser Select spot:

Emily: “It’s so hard to decide whether you want to be lazy and enjoy your large amounts of money, or get more large amounts of money.Peter: “Such is the life of Jay-Z.”

Emily: “Such a hard choice.”

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Game Two

Sunday, October 22nd, 2006

World Series 2006

STL

1

4

1

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DET

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10

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20

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• Tonight’s offense is exactly what my worst fears were. Weaver, The Accidental Husband video admittedly wasn’t as sharp as he was against the Padres or Mets, but he gave this offense only three runs and battled back from some tough situations (like bases loaded, none out.) His batters just couldn’t back him up.

A lot of that is Rogers, of course, who has been masterful this postseason. Unfortunately, whoever the blame lies with – the Cards’ batters or the Tigers’ starter – the result could be a cooling of the Redbird bats that carries over to game three and beyond. The most important thing on Tuesday is whether Mound City can jump on Robertson early to re-establish their own confidence. Carpenter will show up; the bats need to as well.

The run in the ninth may help, taking some of the sting out of the loss, but Todd Jones won’t be starting a contest anytime soon.

The pine tar. All this served to do is act as a brief distraction and a tiny footnote, since Rogers pitched seven innings of one-hit ball after the substance was wiped off. Would I have liked to seen him thrown out? Of course. Should he have been? Of course not. Even though Fox’s footage seems to prove he used the substance in his start against Oakland, the umps technically didn’t catch him with it on his hand, and he obviously didn’t need it to dominate the Cardinals. Just an odd, random occurance that probably won’t be remembered long after the Series is over.

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Game One

Saturday, October 21st, 2006

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STL

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8

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11

DET

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Reyes is a pimp. This is the kid we saw his first four starts of the year, including the phenomenal game on the Southside when he went eight (complete) and gave up one hit – a homer to Jim Thome. It appears that early in his career he’s shaping up to be a big game pitcher; not that the last game of the season wasn’t big, but his NLCS turn wasn’t bad (save the whole “tipping your pitches” thing,) and now he comes up huge here. He has to just watch that he doesn’t turn into a Brandon Backe or Josh Beckett.

Just one complaint: Tony pulled him too soon. With a five run lead, trust the kid to finish the game since he can hardly get you in that much trouble. I don’t think it’ll cost anything in the long run (hell, my immediate reaction was “pull him” until I thought for a second,) but I’d rather build confidence in the kid so game five can be a potential repeat.

Moose Hunters trailer3-4-5 is why the Cards were swept in ‘04 and lost to the Astros last year. Pujols produced okay (just ask Brad Lidge,) but had no support, as Rolen and Edmonds sleepwalked through the playoffs. It wasn’t even that they seem frustrated, but that they didn’t seem to care.

Now, Rolen seems pissed.

He murdered that ball, and I think it’s because he’s taking his anger out on it. Anger at Tony, anger at his injury, anger at the media (like USA Today predicting “Detroit in three”,) whatever – he’s absolutely possessed and the fact that he got another hit later in the game makes this two solid contests in a row and a big monkey off his back.

Edmonds still has a way to go, but he looked sharper. Certainly having him in the cleanup spot is a better fit than Encarnacion, who’s patient at the plate and would be a better fit for the two-hole when the series returns to 420 South Eighth and the Cards lose the DH.

• Molina stayed sharp, as did Taguchi even if neither of them mirrored their previous impact. Eckstein’s struggles concern me, but I don’t think he’s completely healed. Nor is Pujols, but he smells the ring and he’ll play fine through the pain.

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