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Peter’s Big Old (Basically Useless, Except It’s Always Right) Oscar Theory divides the five Oscar nominees into five classes, of which only one should produce a winner. That would be the “Frontrunner” class, which holds the top two pictures. Under that is the one film with an “Outside Chance,” followed by the two with “No Chance.” Of the top two films, one is a clear favorite and rarely ever loses. Usually the Favorite Wins, though occasionally (1999, 2003, 2006) the underdog wins. For example, in ‘99 and ‘03 Saving Private Ryan and Gangs of New York had SO MUCH advance buzz that Shakespeare in Love and Chicago respectively steamrolled out of the Golden Globes and stole all the momentum. One could argue that in 1999 leading up to the awards Life is Beautiful had been bumped up to Frontrunner (Underdog) status while Ryan was out of the picture, but that is the whole point of the theory: it was next-to-impossible for LIB to win because at nomination time it was in a class that is impossible to take home Best Picture from. You have to have the momentum by the nominations, or else you’re out of luck. Being in the No Chance category is like having a #11 seed in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tourney: is it technically possible to win? Yes. Will you win? Oh, hells no.

Once upon a time I saw all five films nominated for Best Picture.

Once upon a time I actually saw films.

(Once upon a time I actually blogged, as well, but that’s another story…)

The one thing I have remained consistent about is my ability to pick the winner of Best Picture, upset or not. Admittedly, it isn’t a relatively hard thing to do if you A.) pay attention to the press each film gets, and 2.) understand that it’s not about which is the better film, but about which film Academy voters are most likely to vote for. This is why I picked Crash

Everyone’s Hero full to upset Brokeback Mountain

last year long before it started to get noticed (read: before the Golden Globes.) I could just tell.

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That all said, 2007 is 2001* all over again. There isn’t a looker in the bunch; did my absence from the multiplexes cause there to be no more really good films? I would admit personal bias and confess that perhaps my guru, Roger Ebert’s, hospitalization and lack of reviews for the last half (the most important half, awards-wise) of the year just makes it seem like there’s a dearth of legitimate nominees. But I don’t seem to be alone in my opinion.

Maybe that’s unfair. Maybe it’s just the films lack excitement…sizzle…whatever.

There’s also no clear frontrunner. Shit.

No, I did not simply list them in (almost) alphabetical order.

Straight-Jacket psp

I really don’t know what to think. No film has the buzz; Departed is getting the “Scorsese Will Finally Win!” press, but not as much as for Gangs of New York,, and we all know how that one ended. Then again, this is the first film of his that really doesn’t have legitimate competition. Babel could draw the Crash artistic vote, but it’s not getting the press. Little Miss Sunshine could be the rare populous champion, but I don’t see it. Letters and Queen are just happy to be here.

So I guess we’ll go with Babel off the strength of the Globes win and the fact that the Academy likes to taunt Martin Scorsese. But I fear that my nine year winning streak may be coming to an end.

Previous years below. Best Picture winners are noted in bold; my pick is noted with an asterisk. Notice how you always find the two together.

* Gladiator sucked. Brockovich sucked. Chocolat was not nomination worthy. Neither was Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. Traffic was good, but not as good as Almost Famous, State and Main and Wonder Boys, all of which were ignored by the Academy.